Liberal Party candidates are pulling away with the lead in two key ridings in Waterloo Region, a local expert on polling data says.
Barry Kay is a political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University and a member of the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Polling (LISPOP).
New LISPOP seat projections released Tuesday show the Liberals with a slight lead over the Conservatives on a national level.
In Ontario, that lead is more substantial – 61 seats to 44, with the NDP holding the remaining 16 seats.
Prior to the election, the Conservatives held 73 of Ontario’s seats in Parliament, with the NDP taking up 22 and the Liberals occupying 11.
“Things certainly can change, but the movement of late has been away from the Conservatives toward the Liberals – and especially away from the NDP,” Kay said in an interview.
Those Ontario numbers may also translate to the potential for a red shift in Waterloo Region.
LISPOP projections show Kitchener Centre and Waterloo as solidly in the Liberal camp.
Outlying ridings Kitchener-Conestoga, Kitchener South-Hespeler and Cambridge are still projected to end up with the Conservatives, but not as solidly as they were earlier in the campaign.
“All of the ridings in Waterloo Region are in a fair degree of play,” Kay said.
The competitive nature of local ridings would also go a way toward explaining why the region has suddenly become a hotbed for leader’s visits.
Conservative leader Stephen Harper, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and NDP leader Tom Mulcair all stopped in Waterloo Region early in the campaign.
Mulcair and Trudeau returned to Waterloo last week, and Harper showed up in the area Monday.
Tuesday, Trudeau was once again in Waterloo Region to meet with local politicians and speak with Kitchener City Hall.
“This is where the action is,” Kay said.
“The fact that so many of the leaders are here in the last week of the campaign shows how significant this region is.”
Local politicians also spent part of Tuesday trying to get their voices heard by voters.
Kitchener Mayor Berry Vrbanovic, Waterloo Mayor Dave Jaworsky and Regional Chair Ken Seiling held a joint press conference where they called on federal parties to announce plans for key issues like infrastructure and housing.
The current state of those two files represents a “catch-22” for the public, Vrbanovic said.
“If you try to move out to where you can afford housing, you face punishing gridlock. If you try moving closer to work to avoid being stuck in traffic, you can’t afford a home,” he said.
The press conference was one of several to take place across Canada, as part of an initiative by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities.
Elsewhere in our coverage area, LISPOP projects strong Conservative showings in Perth-Wellington, Wellington-Halton Hills and Oxford, while Guelph appears solidly Liberal and Brantford-Brant is considered too close to call.
