With three days until the Ontario election, most opinion polls show the Progressive Conservatives and NDP running neck and neck.
Taking those polls and translating them into seat projections, researchers at Wilfrid Laurier University say, shows a race that isn’t quite as close.
The latest projections from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) predict the PCs picking up 67 seats, the NDP 52 and the Liberals five.
Those numbers represent a four-seat gain for the PCs over the last LISPOP forecast, which was released May 30 and showed the PCs one seat shy of being able to form a majority government.
LISPOP’s projections are based on weighted aggregation of several mainstream polls, meaning some of the data contributing to Monday’s forecast dates back as far as May 31. During the last federal election, LISPOP’s data did not capture the surge in Liberal support that led that party to a significant majority despite polling data suggesting a much closer race.
The institute says it may or may not release one more round of projections before the election, depending on how many new polls are made public.
In local ridings, the latest LISPOP projections show no change from where things stood late last week.
Oxford, Wellington-Halton Hills and Perth-Wellington are still believed to be safe PC seats, with Kitchener-Conestoga leaning in the same direction. The NDP are believed to have a clear path to victory in Waterloo and slight leads in Kitchener Centre and Brantford-Brant. The remaining local ridings – Kitchener Centre, Kitchener South-Hespeler and Guelph – are considered too close to call.
