March Madness: Fewer grains of sand on earth than odds of picking the perfect bracket, says Waterloo statistician
Just one day into this year’s March Madness tournament, a handful of upsets are breaking hearts and busting brackets.
Thursday saw several top-seeded teams knocked out, as Kentucky, South Carolina and BYU were each handed first-round exits.
“It definitely just eliminated a lot of people’s brackets,” said Isaac White, a fan in Waterloo.
Sports network ESPN collected 22.6 million brackets by tip-off Thursday. Coming into Friday, the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) reported only .00038 per cent of brackets submitted to it remain perfect.
“It’s outstanding to me,” White said. “I find it very unreal that it’s so hard to pick a perfect bracket.”
Why is March Madness so hard to predict?
The NCAA claims there is a 1 in 9.2 quintillion chance of predicting a flawless bracket just by randomly guessing on each game.
“It’s been estimated there around are about… 7.5 quintillion grains of sand on the planet. So 1 in 9.2? That’s more than there are grains of sand,” says Michael Wallace, an associate professor of biostatistics at the University of Waterloo.
Wallace says rough estimates suggest you would be more likely to win Ontario’s Lotto Max jackpot, die from a shark attack and be struck by lightning simultaneously than perfectly predict all 63 games of the NCAA tournament.
"About one in four games are upsets and if one in four games are upsets and you're trying to predict a 63-game tournament, even the best math in the world isn't going to get you there," Wallace explains.
Has anyone had a perfect March Madness bracket?
No, but just a few years ago, a neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio got close. In 2019, Gregg Nigl posted in the longest verified streak in history. Nigl correctly predicted the first 49 games of that year’s tournament, until Purdue’s overtime win over Tennessee busted his bracket in game 50.
No one has ever predicted a perfect bracket that’s been verified by the NCAA, and it’s a trend that’s not likely to change in our lifetime.
Although even with near impossible odds, most fans would agree, you can never say never.
Correction
This story previously ran with the headline “March Madness: More grains of sand on earth than odds of picking the perfect bracket, says Waterloo statistician.” There are, in fact, more possible brackets than estimated grains of sand on earth. The headline has been corrected.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
DEVELOPING Slovakia's populist prime minister shot in assassination attempt, shocking Europe before elections
Slovakia's populist prime minister, Robert Fico, was shot multiple times and gravely wounded Wednesday after a political event in an attempted assassination that shocked the small country and reverberated across Europe.
Transport Canada's UFO 'lead' planned to meet with U.S. intel officials, called info requests a 'wild goose chase'
Canada's transportation department had a UFO 'lead' who tried to 'quell' media interest and planned to meet with U.S. intelligence officials.
'Very expensive lunch': Sask. driver handed a cell phone ticket for using points app in McDonald's drive-thru
A warning from a Saskatoon driver about using your fast-food app while in the drive-thru line — a trip to get some free lunch cost him a lot more than he bargained for.
'The Fly' has become notorious in France after a brazen escape. What's his criminal history?
A prisoner nicknamed “The Fly” has become notorious in France overnight after a daring and bloody escape from a prison convoy in Normandy that left two guards dead.
Ontario's 'Crypto King' Aiden Pleterski arrested
Aiden Pleterski, the self-proclaimed 'crypto king' from Whitby, Ont., has been arrested in Durham Region after allegedly running a Ponzi scheme worth more than $40 million.
Barge hits a bridge in Texas, damaging the structure and causing an oil spill
A barge slammed into a bridge pillar in Galveston, Texas, on Wednesday, spilling oil into surrounding waters and closing the only road to a smaller and separate island that is home to a university, officials said. There were no immediate reports of injuries.
Person responsible for 1996 drugging of 'Titanic' crew likely not a local: Halifax police
Halifax Regional Police believe a non-resident could be responsible for the infamous drugging of numerous crew members of the 'Titanic' movie with a hallucinogenic in 1996.
Latest updates on the biggest wildfires burning in Canada
Thousands of people in Western Canada remain displaced from their homes as wildfires threaten their communities, triggering evacuation orders and alerts.
OPINION If you think you can’t focus for long, you’re right: Sandee LaMotte
Regaining your focus requires you to be mindful of how you are using technology -- a daunting task if you consider the average American spends at least 10 hours a day on screens.