March Madness: Fewer grains of sand on earth than odds of picking the perfect bracket, says Waterloo statistician
Just one day into this year’s March Madness tournament, a handful of upsets are breaking hearts and busting brackets.
Thursday saw several top-seeded teams knocked out, as Kentucky, South Carolina and BYU were each handed first-round exits.
“It definitely just eliminated a lot of people’s brackets,” said Isaac White, a fan in Waterloo.
Sports network ESPN collected 22.6 million brackets by tip-off Thursday. Coming into Friday, the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) reported only .00038 per cent of brackets submitted to it remain perfect.
“It’s outstanding to me,” White said. “I find it very unreal that it’s so hard to pick a perfect bracket.”
Why is March Madness so hard to predict?
The NCAA claims there is a 1 in 9.2 quintillion chance of predicting a flawless bracket just by randomly guessing on each game.
“It’s been estimated there around are about… 7.5 quintillion grains of sand on the planet. So 1 in 9.2? That’s more than there are grains of sand,” says Michael Wallace, an associate professor of biostatistics at the University of Waterloo.
Wallace says rough estimates suggest you would be more likely to win Ontario’s Lotto Max jackpot, die from a shark attack and be struck by lightning simultaneously than perfectly predict all 63 games of the NCAA tournament.
"About one in four games are upsets and if one in four games are upsets and you're trying to predict a 63-game tournament, even the best math in the world isn't going to get you there," Wallace explains.
Has anyone had a perfect March Madness bracket?
No, but just a few years ago, a neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio got close. In 2019, Gregg Nigl posted in the longest verified streak in history. Nigl correctly predicted the first 49 games of that year’s tournament, until Purdue’s overtime win over Tennessee busted his bracket in game 50.
No one has ever predicted a perfect bracket that’s been verified by the NCAA, and it’s a trend that’s not likely to change in our lifetime.
Although even with near impossible odds, most fans would agree, you can never say never.
Correction
This story previously ran with the headline “March Madness: More grains of sand on earth than odds of picking the perfect bracket, says Waterloo statistician.” There are, in fact, more possible brackets than estimated grains of sand on earth. The headline has been corrected.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Serial sexual offender linked to unsolved 1970s homicides of four Calgary girls, women
An investigation into unsolved historical homicides from the 1970s has linked the deaths of two girls and two young women in and around Calgary to a now-deceased serial offender.
Woman with liver failure rejected for a transplant after medical review highlights alcohol use
For nearly three months, Amanda Huska has been in an Ontario hospital, part of it on life support, because of severe liver failure. Her history of alcohol use is getting in the way of her only potential treatment: a liver transplant.
Video appears to show Sean 'Diddy' Combs beating singer Cassie in hotel hallway in 2016
Security video aired by CNN appears to show Sean 'Diddy' Combs physically assaulting singer Cassie in a Los Angeles hotel hallway in 2016.
Scottie Scheffler isn't the first pro golfer to be arrested during a tournament
Scottie Scheffler's arrest hours before his second-round tee time at the PGA Championship in Louisville, Kentucky, will go down as one of the most shocking in professional golf history. It certainly wasn't the first, though.
B.C. man 'attacked suddenly' by adult grizzly near Alberta border: RCMP
A B.C. man is recovering from multiple injuries after he was "attacked suddenly" by an adult grizzly bear near Elkford Thursday afternoon.
Anglers reel in 3.5-metre-long tiger shark off coast of Florida: 'She found my bait'
A group of fishers said it took roughly 20 minutes to reel in this 3.5-metre-long tiger shark off the coast of Florida.
Canadian convicted of attacking Nancy Pelosi's husband with a hammer sentenced to 30 years
The man convicted of attempting to kidnap then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and attacking her husband with a hammer was sentenced Friday to 30 years in prison.
NEW What a wildfire survivor says she regrets not grabbing before leaving home
Carol Christian had 15 minutes to evacuate her home during the Fort McMurray wildfires in 2016. She ended up losing the house and everything inside. Now, she wants to share the lessons she learned.
World No. 1 golfer charged with police officer assault before PGA Championship second round
World number one golfer Scottie Scheffler was arrested and charged with the assault of a police officer in what he called a 'chaotic situation' before being released in time to start his second round at the PGA Championship on Friday.