PCs leading, NDP surging as campaign nears halfway point: LISPOP
Published Tuesday, May 22, 2018 11:54AM EDT
The latest election results projection from Wilfrid Laurier University suggests the Progressive Conservatives remaining on pace for a majority government, with the NDP share of the vote receiving a strong boost as well.
The projection, which was released Tuesday by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP), shows the PCs projected to win 69 seats, with the NDP picking up 39 and the Liberals 16.
When the Ontario legislature was dissolved, the governing Liberals had 55 seats, while the PCs had 27 and the NDP 18. Seven seats were either vacant or independently held. Fifteen new seats are being added for the June 7 election, meaning a party will need to secure 63 seats to form a majority government.
LISPOP’s projections are based on a weighted aggregation of various political polls. During the last federal election, their model predicted a much closer race between the three major parties than the results ultimately showed.
On the local front, LISPOP suggests Kitchener-Conestoga, Oxford, Perth-Wellington and Wellington-Halton Hills remain solidly in the PC camp, with Cambridge, Kitchener Centre and Kitchener South-Hespeler leaning in the same direction.
Waterloo is believed to be a safe NDP riding, while Guelph and Brantford-Brant are considered too close to call.