March Madness: Fewer grains of sand on earth than odds of picking the perfect bracket, says Waterloo statistician
Just one day into this year’s March Madness tournament, a handful of upsets are breaking hearts and busting brackets.
Thursday saw several top-seeded teams knocked out, as Kentucky, South Carolina and BYU were each handed first-round exits.
“It definitely just eliminated a lot of people’s brackets,” said Isaac White, a fan in Waterloo.
Sports network ESPN collected 22.6 million brackets by tip-off Thursday. Coming into Friday, the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) reported only .00038 per cent of brackets submitted to it remain perfect.
“It’s outstanding to me,” White said. “I find it very unreal that it’s so hard to pick a perfect bracket.”
Why is March Madness so hard to predict?
The NCAA claims there is a 1 in 9.2 quintillion chance of predicting a flawless bracket just by randomly guessing on each game.
“It’s been estimated there around are about… 7.5 quintillion grains of sand on the planet. So 1 in 9.2? That’s more than there are grains of sand,” says Michael Wallace, an associate professor of biostatistics at the University of Waterloo.
Wallace says rough estimates suggest you would be more likely to win Ontario’s Lotto Max jackpot, die from a shark attack and be struck by lightning simultaneously than perfectly predict all 63 games of the NCAA tournament.
"About one in four games are upsets and if one in four games are upsets and you're trying to predict a 63-game tournament, even the best math in the world isn't going to get you there," Wallace explains.
Has anyone had a perfect March Madness bracket?
No, but just a few years ago, a neuropsychologist from Columbus, Ohio got close. In 2019, Gregg Nigl posted in the longest verified streak in history. Nigl correctly predicted the first 49 games of that year’s tournament, until Purdue’s overtime win over Tennessee busted his bracket in game 50.
No one has ever predicted a perfect bracket that’s been verified by the NCAA, and it’s a trend that’s not likely to change in our lifetime.
Although even with near impossible odds, most fans would agree, you can never say never.
Correction
This story previously ran with the headline “March Madness: More grains of sand on earth than odds of picking the perfect bracket, says Waterloo statistician.” There are, in fact, more possible brackets than estimated grains of sand on earth. The headline has been corrected.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Child under 5 dies of measles in Ontario: PHO
A young child has died of measles in Ontario, marking the first death in the province from the highly contagious virus in more than 10 years, a Public Health Ontario report confirms.
NEW Pack the macaroni necklace: Lessons on evacuations from a woman who fled one of Canada's worst wildfires
Carol Christian had 15 minutes to evacuate her home during the Fort McMurray wildfires in 2016. She ended up losing the house and everything inside. Now, she wants to share the lessons she learned.
Think twice before sharing 'heartbreaking' social media posts, RCMP warn
Mounties in B.C. are urging people to think twice before sharing "heartbreaking posts" on social media.
'Ugly produce': One way Canadians are shrinking rising grocery bills
As the cost of food in Canada has risen, grocery shoppers are looking at ways to reduce their grocery bill, and more are choosing price over beauty, turning to companies that deliver so-called 'misfit' produce at a fraction of the cost.
Vatican revamps norms to evaluate visions of Mary as it adapts to Internet age and combats hoaxers
The Vatican on Friday radically reformed its process for evaluating alleged visions of the Virgin Mary, weeping statues and other seemingly supernatural phenomena, insisting on having the final say in whether the events are worthy of popular devotion.
Wildfires burning across Canada: Communities threatened as flames creep closer
Thousands of residents fled Fort McMurray this week, fearing a repeat of the 2016 wildfire that forced out the entire community and torched more than 2,400 homes.
5 secrets to moving better and preventing avoidable injury
Countless people seek emergency care for back pain, muscle strains and similar injuries resulting from “moving wrong” during mundane, everyday tasks such as bending over to tie shoes, lifting objects or doing household chores.
Trudeau calls New Brunswick's Conservative government a 'disgrace' on women's rights
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau assailed New Brunswick's premier and other conservative leaders on Thursday, calling out the provincial government's position on abortion, LGBTQ youth and climate change.
French police fatally shoot a man suspected of setting fire to a synagogue
French police shot and killed a man armed with a knife and a metal bar who is suspected of having set fire to a synagogue in the Normandy city of Rouen early on Friday, the latest apparent act in a storm of antisemitism roiling France amid the Israel-Hamas war.