U of G researchers' AI work predicts rising food costs in 2025

Canadians can get a clearer picture of 2025 grocery costs thanks to University of Guelph researchers contributing to the 2025 Canada Food Price Report, now in its 15th edition.

Using cutting-edge machine learning and large language models (LLMs), the report predicts a three to five per cent increase in food prices next year, with the average family of four expected to spend $16,833.67—an increase of $801.56 from 2024. The steepest price hikes are anticipated in meat and vegetables.

Dr. Graham Taylor, lead researcher from U of G’s School of Engineering, explained that the team leverages historical data and variables like global conflicts, climate change, and exchange rates. This year, LLMs simulated subject-matter experts to deliver improved forecasts.

“LLMs can read the whole internet and unlock that knowledge to guide our predictions, potentially offering a better forecast than a person or traditional statistical model,” Taylor said.

The methodology was developed in collaboration with the Vector Institute, PhD candidate Kristina Kupferschmidt and postdoctoral fellow Dr. James Requeima. The project also involved undergraduate researchers Zohrah Bee Varsally and Mya Simpson, who gained hands-on experience in machine learning.

As Canadians grapple with rising costs, Taylor emphasized the importance of the report in helping families optimize food budgets.

“Information from the Canada Food Price Report could help people optimize their food budget,” he suggested. “This might include buying non-perishable items when they’re on sale or looking for lower-priced alternatives.” 

But he noted that while price increases have stabilized, costs will likely never drop back to pre-pandemic levels.

The Canada Food Price Report is produced collaboratively by Dalhousie University, University of Guelph, University of British Columbia and University of Saskatchewan. Other contributors from U of G include Ontario Agricultural College food economists, engineers and team members from the Arrell Food Institute.