All eyes in Ottawa are on Trudeau’s political future

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives at a cabinet swearing-in ceremony at Rideau Hall in Ottawa, Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

Monday could mark a historic week in Canadian politics if the growing chorus calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gets its way.

The Globe and Mail is reporting that Trudeau is expected to announce he is stepping down as Liberal party leader as early as Monday.

Trudeau has faced mounting calls for his resignation from MPs in his caucus as public opinion polls have continued to put the governing Liberals trailing far behind the Conservatives.

The Globe report says three sources, who weren't authorized to speak about the matter publicly, did not know a specific timeline but they expected Trudeau would announce his plans before a national caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday.

The Canadian Press has not independently confirmed the Globe report.

Over the weekend, Peter Fragiskatos became the latest Liberal MP to join those voices calling for Trudeau's departure. He told the London Free Press his constituents are now overwhelmingly in favour of Trudeau stepping down. 

On Dec. 29, a letter from the Atlantic Liberal caucus calling on Trudeau to resign as party leader was shared publicly by New Brunswick MP Wayne Long, who has been saying since the fall that Trudeau should step down.  

The prime minister is set to face Liberal MPs at a caucus meeting on Wednesday. 

On Sunday, back in Ottawa after a vacation over the holidays in British Columbia, Trudeau suggested he’s sticking to business-as-usual. 

That’s despite the Liberal MPs calling for him to resign and three main opposition parties all saying they plan to bring down the government at the first opportunity, which could come before the end of the month.

In a post on X, Trudeau said the Liberal government has lowered child-care costs for nearly a million Canadians. “In 2025, we’re going to keep bringing those costs down. Let’s go,” he said late Sunday afternoon. A message from his office said Trudeau will participate in a virtual cabinet meeting discussing Canada-U.S. relations on Monday.

MPs aren’t scheduled to come back to Ottawa until the House of Commons returns on Jan. 27, but MPs were encouraged to attend Wednesday’s meeting in person, according to a letter from national caucus chair Brenda Shanahan.

In the letter, posted online by CBC News, Shanahan said that given the short notice for the meeting, MPs will be allowed to attend virtually, but are “expected to be alone in a closed confidential space, face visible at all times on screen.”

Pressure on Trudeau to step down intensified after the surprise resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Dec. 16. 

Before the holiday break, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson told The Canadian Press that Trudeau was taking time to reflect on his future, but Trudeau himself has been silent on that topic since Freeland’s resignation.

That means there are a number of ways the coming weeks in Ottawa could play out.

If Trudeau does resign, a provision in the constitution says the Liberal caucus can be consulted on who becomes the interim leader. 

Mike Crawley, who served a term as Liberal party president starting in 2012, said the first decision to make would be whether to appoint an interim leader. Crawley noted he is not speaking on behalf of the Liberal party.

He said the decision would be up to the administrative board of the party but “practically speaking, the board would certainly strongly consider a recommendation coming from caucus.”

The party executive has to call a meeting within 27 days to establish rules and infrastructure for a leadership contest. Crawley predicted the meeting would likely be called “much quicker than that.”

There is no rule in the constitution dictating how long a leadership contest has to be, though candidates must gather the necessary signatures and deliver a written nomination letter to the party president at least 90 days ahead of the vote.

Crawley said the current situation, in which the minority Liberal government could fall at any time, adds complexity around a potential leadership contest.

“I'm not envious of the current party president or the board and having to consider these options because it is difficult,” he said.

While it’s not up to the party whether the government falls, they have to decide “what's best for the party in terms of a leadership contest, but at the same time I think they have to also look at what contingencies they put in place to ensure that if the government falls, that there's a leader who can lead the government through that election campaign.”

There is no mechanism within the Liberal party for caucus to remove Trudeau as leader in this circumstance. 

That means if Trudeau opts to stay on, he could lead the party into the next election, which must take place by October. 

But given the opposition parties' promise to trigger an early election, Canadians could be going to the polls much sooner than that.

Next week, the Conservatives plan to introduce a non-confidence motion at the public accounts committee, and that could be up for a vote in the House of Commons as soon as Jan. 30.

In an emailed statement, Opposition House Leader Andrew Scheer accused Trudeau of "desperately clinging to power."

He said Trudeau should call an election "now that he has lost the confidence of the majority of MPs in the House of Commons. Dozens of Justin Trudeau's own MPs, including his former deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, no longer have confidence in him."

Regardless of whether Trudeau resigns as Liberal leader, the government could seek prorogation to end all House of Commons business.

In 2008, then-prime minister Stephen Harper notably prorogued Parliament shortly before a non-confidence vote that could have seen his minority Conservative government defeated and replaced by an NDP-Liberal coalition supported by the Bloc Québécois. 

— With files from David Baxter

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 6, 2025.