Wiarton Willie predicts an early spring on Groundhog Day
Wiarton Willie made his spring prediction Thursday morning at 8:07 a.m., and winter may be ending sooner rather than later.
The groundhog did not see his shadow, meaning we could get an early spring.
The annual tradition returned in-person in 2023 and was the first big event for this new Wiarton Willie. The previous prognosticator died in 2020 from a tooth abscess.
This year's in-person event was welcome news to the community of Wiarton which saw a big crowd show up for the Feb. 2 predication.
“It’s been nice to see everybody back,” said Laura Lisk, the chair of Wiarton’s Chamber of Commerce. “People we haven’t seen in a couple of years, for the businesses in town."
“It’s not just tourists that come up,” said Danielle Edwards, the organizer of the South Bruce Peninsula’s Wiarton Willie Festival and Manager of Economic Development. “It’s a homecoming for the community. It’s just a fantastic event, and we’re just thrilled to have it back, live in person, again.”
The festival continues through to the weekend with family events like skating, foosball and axe throwing.
As far as predictions go, Wiarton Willie was alone in calling for an early spring. Nova Scotia's Shubenacadie Sam saw her shadow this morning at a wildlife park north of Halifax, suggesting six more weeks of winter.
EARLY SPRING EXPLANATION
So what’s considered an early spring?
Meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere includes March, April and May. However the first day of spring, or spring equinox, is typically closer to the end of March. In 2023 it starts on March 20.
Warmer, or above average temperatures, for the months of March, April and May would indicate an early spring.
WILLIE’S PAST PREDICTIONS
Here are Wiarton Willie’s predictions between 2013 and 2022, compared to mean temperature reported by Environment Canada. All temperatures are in degrees Celsius.
2022
Prediction: Early Spring (new Wiarton Willie)
Average temperatures:
- March: 0.4 (below average)
- April: 5.3 (above average)
- May: 13.8 (above average)
Summary: March had a mix of both warm and cool days, while April and May were above seasonal.
Accuracy: Correct
2021
Prediction: Early Spring (new Wiarton Willie)
Average temperatures:
- March: 2.2 (above average)
- April: 7.0 (above average)
- May: 11.6 (above average)
Summary: Spring arrived in March and by May we were seeing summer-like temperatures in the 20s and 30s.
Accuracy: Correct
2020
Prediction: Early Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: 1.9 (above average)
- April: 4.7 (below average)
- May: 11 (below average)
Summary: March was warmer than usual, but winter stuck around a little longer into April and May.
Accuracy: Wrong
2019
Prediction: Early Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: -2.5 (below average)
- April: 5.1 (below average)
- May: 11.3 (below average)
Summary: All three months were below average.
Accuracy: Wrong
2018
Prediction: Late Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: -1.1 (below average)
- April: 2.2 (below average)
- May: 16 (above average)
Summary: Temperatures were below average into April, but May was above seasonal.
Accuracy: Correct
2017
Prediction: Early Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: -1.3 (below average)
- April: 8.6 (above average)
- May: 11.2 (below average)
Summary: March and April were close to seasonal, and May was just two degrees above the average temperature for this time of year.
Accuracy: Draw
2016
Prediction: Late Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: 2.1 (above average)
- April: 3.6 (below average)
- May: 13 (above average)
Summary: March was a bit warmer than normal, but then frosty weather returned in April before temperatures bounced back in may.
Accuracy: Wrong
2015
Prediction: Early Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: -3.5 (below average)
- April: 6 (below average)
- May: 15.2 (above average)
Summary: March was below seasonal, with April just 0.2 degrees below the average. Things turned around in May with warmer than usual weather.
Accuracy: Draw
2014
Prediction: Late Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: -6.4 (below average)
- April: 4.6 (below average)
- May: 12.8 (above average)
Summary: March was five degrees colder than average, followed by a chilly April. May just squeaked by with above seasonal temperatures.
Accuracy: Correct
2013
Prediction: Early Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: -1.7 (below average)
- April: 5.3 (below average)
- May: 13.7 (above average)
Summary: Each month was within 1.2 degrees of the average.
Accuracy: Wrong
VERDICT
Over the last 10 years, Wiarton Willie was correct four times and wrong four times. It was too close to call in 2015 and 2017.
That gives the groundhog a 50 per cent average when it comes it predicting an early spring or longer winter.
WHAT THE FORECASTERS PREDICT
Though Wiarton Willie has made his prediction, the weather forecasters also have some idea what lies ahead.
CTV Kitchener’s Will Aiello said southwestern Ontario is starting off February with the coldest temperatures we’ve seen all season, which is good news for anyone wanting to get out their skis, snowboards or skates.
Towards the middle of the month, Will said we’ll see temperatures return to seasonal and even above seasonal. That could mean the potential of rain in certain areas of southwestern Ontario.
Day time seasonal highs could be the overnight lows in some cases.
Environment Canada is also weighing in on the spring forecast, predicting average temperatures over the next three months in southern Ontario.
So will we get an early spring? Only time will tell.
— With files from CTV News London’s Scott Miller
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
U.S. President Joe Biden to meet Trudeau, address Parliament today
After two years in office, U.S. President Joe Biden has made it to Canada, and is waking up to a full day of events in the capital.

W5 Investigates | Hidden danger: Is there asbestos in your drinking water, and how could it get there?
W5 investigates aging asbestos pipes across Canada and the potential health hazards if it ends up in your tap water. Watch W5's 'Something in the Water' Saturday at 7 p.m. on CTV.
Ontario crypto king kidnapped, tortured in an attempt to get millions in ransom, documents say
Ontario’s self-described crypto king was allegedly abducted, tortured, and beaten for days as his kidnappers looked to solicit millions in ransom, his father told a court in December.
Restaurants and bars brace for biggest alcohol tax jump in 40 years
Canada's restaurant industry is bracing for the biggest jump in the country's alcohol excise duty in more than 40 years, spurring warnings the tax hike could force some bars and restaurants out of business.
Hershey looking to remove lead, cadmium from chocolate
Hershey Co. is looking to reduce 'trace' amounts of lead and cadmium in its chocolate, chief financial officer Steve Voskiul told Reuters on Wednesday, after Consumer Reports found that some dark chocolate bars had potentially harmful levels of the heavy metals.
Unwelcome spotlight falls on NHL team Pride night events
Pride nights, held annually for several years by National Hockey League teams to show support for the LGBTQ2S+ community, are in the spotlight following several high-profile incidents this season.
Utah bans kids from accessing social media during evening hours, without parent consent
Children and teens in Utah would lose access to social media apps such as TikTok if they don't have parental consent and face other restrictions under a first-in-the-nation law designed to shield young people from the addictive platforms.
Make sure to check your grocery bill, otherwise you may pay more: survey
A majority of Canadians have seen a mistake on their grocery receipts in the last year, according to a new survey conducted by Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University.
Protests continue in France; King Charles III visit postponed
Protesters angry at French President Emmanuel Macron's pension reforms continued with scattered actions on Friday, as the unrest across the country led officials to postpone a planned state visit by King Charles III.