Wiarton Willie predicts an early spring on Groundhog Day
Wiarton Willie made his spring prediction Thursday morning at 8:07 a.m., and winter may be ending sooner rather than later.
The groundhog did not see his shadow, meaning we could get an early spring.
The annual tradition returned in-person in 2023 and was the first big event for this new Wiarton Willie. The previous prognosticator died in 2020 from a tooth abscess.
This year's in-person event was welcome news to the community of Wiarton which saw a big crowd show up for the Feb. 2 predication.
“It’s been nice to see everybody back,” said Laura Lisk, the chair of Wiarton’s Chamber of Commerce. “People we haven’t seen in a couple of years, for the businesses in town."
“It’s not just tourists that come up,” said Danielle Edwards, the organizer of the South Bruce Peninsula’s Wiarton Willie Festival and Manager of Economic Development. “It’s a homecoming for the community. It’s just a fantastic event, and we’re just thrilled to have it back, live in person, again.”
The festival continues through to the weekend with family events like skating, foosball and axe throwing.
As far as predictions go, Wiarton Willie was alone in calling for an early spring. Nova Scotia's Shubenacadie Sam saw her shadow this morning at a wildlife park north of Halifax, suggesting six more weeks of winter.
EARLY SPRING EXPLANATION
So what’s considered an early spring?
Meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere includes March, April and May. However the first day of spring, or spring equinox, is typically closer to the end of March. In 2023 it starts on March 20.
Warmer, or above average temperatures, for the months of March, April and May would indicate an early spring.
WILLIE’S PAST PREDICTIONS
Here are Wiarton Willie’s predictions between 2013 and 2022, compared to mean temperature reported by Environment Canada. All temperatures are in degrees Celsius.
2022
Prediction: Early Spring (new Wiarton Willie)
Average temperatures:
- March: 0.4 (below average)
- April: 5.3 (above average)
- May: 13.8 (above average)
Summary: March had a mix of both warm and cool days, while April and May were above seasonal.
Accuracy: Correct
2021
Prediction: Early Spring (new Wiarton Willie)
Average temperatures:
- March: 2.2 (above average)
- April: 7.0 (above average)
- May: 11.6 (above average)
Summary: Spring arrived in March and by May we were seeing summer-like temperatures in the 20s and 30s.
Accuracy: Correct
2020
Prediction: Early Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: 1.9 (above average)
- April: 4.7 (below average)
- May: 11 (below average)
Summary: March was warmer than usual, but winter stuck around a little longer into April and May.
Accuracy: Wrong
2019
Prediction: Early Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: -2.5 (below average)
- April: 5.1 (below average)
- May: 11.3 (below average)
Summary: All three months were below average.
Accuracy: Wrong
2018
Prediction: Late Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: -1.1 (below average)
- April: 2.2 (below average)
- May: 16 (above average)
Summary: Temperatures were below average into April, but May was above seasonal.
Accuracy: Correct
2017
Prediction: Early Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: -1.3 (below average)
- April: 8.6 (above average)
- May: 11.2 (below average)
Summary: March and April were close to seasonal, and May was just two degrees above the average temperature for this time of year.
Accuracy: Draw
2016
Prediction: Late Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: 2.1 (above average)
- April: 3.6 (below average)
- May: 13 (above average)
Summary: March was a bit warmer than normal, but then frosty weather returned in April before temperatures bounced back in may.
Accuracy: Wrong
2015
Prediction: Early Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: -3.5 (below average)
- April: 6 (below average)
- May: 15.2 (above average)
Summary: March was below seasonal, with April just 0.2 degrees below the average. Things turned around in May with warmer than usual weather.
Accuracy: Draw
2014
Prediction: Late Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: -6.4 (below average)
- April: 4.6 (below average)
- May: 12.8 (above average)
Summary: March was five degrees colder than average, followed by a chilly April. May just squeaked by with above seasonal temperatures.
Accuracy: Correct
2013
Prediction: Early Spring
Average temperatures:
- March: -1.7 (below average)
- April: 5.3 (below average)
- May: 13.7 (above average)
Summary: Each month was within 1.2 degrees of the average.
Accuracy: Wrong
VERDICT
Over the last 10 years, Wiarton Willie was correct four times and wrong four times. It was too close to call in 2015 and 2017.
That gives the groundhog a 50 per cent average when it comes it predicting an early spring or longer winter.
WHAT THE FORECASTERS PREDICT
Though Wiarton Willie has made his prediction, the weather forecasters also have some idea what lies ahead.
CTV Kitchener’s Will Aiello said southwestern Ontario is starting off February with the coldest temperatures we’ve seen all season, which is good news for anyone wanting to get out their skis, snowboards or skates.
Towards the middle of the month, Will said we’ll see temperatures return to seasonal and even above seasonal. That could mean the potential of rain in certain areas of southwestern Ontario.
Day time seasonal highs could be the overnight lows in some cases.
Environment Canada is also weighing in on the spring forecast, predicting average temperatures over the next three months in southern Ontario.
So will we get an early spring? Only time will tell.
— With files from CTV News London’s Scott Miller
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
How quietly promised law changes in the 2024 federal budget could impact your day-to-day life
The 2024 federal budget released last week includes numerous big spending promises that have garnered headlines. But, tucked into the 416-page document are also series of smaller items, such as promising to amend the law regarding infant formula and to force banks to label government rebates, that you may have missed.
Which foods have the most plastics? You may be surprised
'How much plastic will you have for dinner, sir? And you, ma'am?' While that may seem like a line from a satirical skit on Saturday Night Live, research is showing it's much too close to reality.
opinion I've been a criminal attorney for decades. Here's what I think about the case against Trump
Joey Jackson, a criminal defence attorney and a legal analyst for CNN, outlines what he thinks about the criminal case against Donald Trump in the 'hush money trial.'
$3.8M home in B.C.'s Okanagan has steel shell for extra wildfire protection
A home in B.C.'s Okanagan that features a weathering steel shell designed to provide some protection against wildfires has been listed for sale at $3.8 million.
Diver pinned under water by an alligator figured he had choice. Lose his arm or lose his life
An alligator attacked a diver on April 15 as he surfaced from his dive, nearly out of air. His tank emptied with the gator's jaws crushing the arm he put up in defence.
Psychologist becomes first person in Peru to die by euthanasia after fighting in court for years
A Peruvian psychologist who suffered from an incurable disease that weakened her muscles and had her confined to her bed for several years, died by euthanasia, her lawyer said Monday, becoming the first person in the country to obtain the right to die with medical assistance.
Mystery surrounds giant custom Canucks jerseys worn by Lions Gate Bridge statues
The giant stone statues guarding the Lions Gate Bridge have been dressed in custom Vancouver Canucks jerseys as the NHL playoffs get underway.
Celebrity designer sentenced to 18 months in prison for smuggling crocodile handbags
A leading fashion designer whose accessories were used by celebrities from Britney Spears to the cast of the 'Sex and the City' TV series was sentenced Monday to 18 months in prison after pleading guilty in Miami federal court on charges of smuggling crocodile handbags from her native Colombia.
Wildfire leads to evacuation order issued for northeast Alberta community
An evacuation order was issued on Monday afternoon for homes in the area of Cold Lake First Nation.