KITCHENER -- Hospitals in Waterloo Region and across Ontario continue to deal with an increase in COVID-19 patients, and modelling shows the numbers will only get worse.

The modelling released on Monday morning showed that intensive care units are already filling with patients and more long-term care homes are dealing with outbreaks. The projections said 50 people could die a day from the disease by February.

"Under all scenarios, ICU capacity, even under a zero-growth scenario, will be able 300 beds within 10 days," said Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, Dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health.

Under the worst-case scenario, that could climb to 1,500 beds by mid-January, marking 75 per cent of the entire ICU system. That could mean even more cancellations of elective surgeries.

"Seventy-five per cent of our intensive care unit beds at any given time are taken up by people who have had car accidents, heart attacks or other emergencies," Premier Doug Ford said. "We need to preserve capacity in our ICUs and our hospitals."

Grand River Hospital said its ICU is at 95 per cent capacity. There are currently 19 COVID-19 cases in the hospital, along with 23 suspected cases.

Cambridge Memorial Hospital has nine COVID-19 cases, three of whom are in the ICU. That hospital said its ICU is at full capacity.

St. Mary's General Hospital has confirmed 14 COVID-19 cases, along with six suspected cases. Officials at St. Mary's said there are 21 patients, both with and without COVID-19 in 26 ICU beds, around 81 per cent capacity. They added that scheduled surgeries were reduced in the last week to add to that capacity to prepare for more COVID-19 cases.

"If the ICUs are full of COVID patients, and if you or some you know has a heart condition or something else that needs urgent care, that means less ability to care for them, so this affects everybody," said Chris Bauch, a professor of applied mathematics at the University of Waterloo.

Monday's modelling also warned that case counts in Ontario could increase by 3,000 each day by the end of January if growth remains in the one to three per cent range. If it jumps to seven per cent, there could be 30,000 new cases a day.

"(In Waterloo Region), 80 cases a day could easily turn into 300 if there are no additional efforts to control it," Bauch said.

As cases continue to climb, the risk increases in vulnerable settings like long-term care homes.

"The bottom line is, we have to focus on the whole community, not just specific settings," said Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Associate Chief Medical Officer of Health.

The government announced a province-wide shutdown on Monday, which will come into effect on Boxing Day.

"The fast way to get out of lockdown is to pull up our boots straps and get the job done," Bauch said.

Officials also said it cane take time to see the effects of a lockdown.