'Too optimistic': UW professor thinks provincial COVID-19 forecasting too low
WATERLOO -- A professor at the University of Waterloo said he thinks the province is low-balling its projected COVID-19 case counts.
New modelling released by the Ontario government on Wednesday forecasts the province could see 1,000 new infections per day by mid-October. The data also said new cases in the province are doubling every 10 to 12 days.
"I think the numbers they used to predict the model were too optimistic," UW professor Chris Bauch said.
Ontario's modelling projection of a second wave is based on second waves in similar demographic locations -- Michigan and Victoria State in Australia.
Bauch researches mathematical modelling for infectious disease and said he doesn't think it's an appropriate assessment because Michigan's second wave hit during the summer when schools were still closed.
Australian officials imposed immediate lockdown measures, like shutting down schools, when Victoria State saw case counts increasing by 600 a day.
"Unless we want to do something like a second lockdown, then I think the projections from Michigan and Australia are too low to be applied to Ontario," Bauch said.
Premier Doug Ford said Wednesday that the government isn't prepared to go back into Stage 2 yet.
Provincial and local public health officials said the size of the second wave depends on how people behave over the coming days and weeks.
Officials said residents should consider shrinking their social bubbles even further heading into October, especially as Thanksgiving approaches.
With files from CTVNewsToronto.ca