KITCHENER -- It may be a fall for golfers and not skiers. Environment Canada is forecasting a pleasant season, with milder and drier conditions.
“I wouldn’t be putting the snow tires on or storing the patio furniture away just yet,” said Environment Canada Senior Climatologist David Phillips about a promising autumn prediction.
The Autumnal Equinox is Sept. 22, but Environment Canada’s fall outlook focuses on Meteorological Fall which includes September, October and November. According to Phillips, the prediction this year is for a milder and drier fall season.
"It doesn’t mean you can’t get frost on the pumpkin or snow before Halloween, those things happen," Phillips said. "Models suggest it is going to be favourable.”
On average, the months of September through November receive about 75 to 85 mm of precipitation each in the Kitchener-Waterloo area. Most of that precipitation falls as rain rather than snow. According to Phillips, in October roughly 1.5 cm of snow falls in KW, on average, along with 13 cm in November.
The average temperature for each month is broken down as follows:
- September: 15 C
- October: 8 C
- November: 3 C
Phillips said the whole country is expecting a fall season milder than normal. "The fall outlook looks good for agriculture getting fields cleared and planted for next year," he said.
Summer featured several days of high heat and humidity. Waterloo Region had 23 days with the temperature at or above 30 C, the average annually is eight. The hot days lead to warm water in the Great Lakes.
“The Great Lakes have never been warmer which could have implications for the winter,” Phillips said.
Those implications would be lake-effect snow.
But, because the summer months had near-normal rainfall amounts, Phillips believes it will be a great season for fall colours, along with good weather to view them, suggesting the colours will peak around Thanksgiving.
La Niña
NOAA has issued a La Niña Advisory and says there is a 75 per cent chance the conditions will hang around through the winter.
La Niña is characterized by cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific.
La Niña has impacts on the Atlantic Hurricane season and can also affect winter across Canada, causing the season to be wetter and colder.
But, Phillips says not to worry about a wild winter just yet.
"For Southern Ontario, La Niña is an indicator of a kind of winter but not one you bet a lot of money on," he said.
Phillips added the last weak to moderate La Niña was 2017-18. Winter in Ontario was slightly cooler than normal that winter.
"Temperatures that year in KW were .5 degrees cooler than normal. Snowfall totals ranged from 5 per cent to 15 per cent above," he said. “Because of climate change our winters aren’t what they used to be."
He added in the 50s, a La Niña winter would be a harsh winter, but that has changed.
"La Niña gives you a bit more flavour to make it a traditional Canadian winter,” Phillips said. “The best way to deal with winter is to embrace it.”
