Meet the Ontario stats prof who claims he can’t stop beating Roll Up To Win
For most people who play Roll Up To Win at Tim Hortons, the winning happens once in a while.
For Michael Wallace, a statistics professor at the University of Waterloo – it’s a different story.
“This year when I played my rolls at the best time, I won at almost 80 per cent of the time” said Wallace.
For Wallace, Roll Up is the convergence of two passions: statistics and contests.
Back in 2020 when Roll Up moved from a cup to online, Wallace saw an opportunity.
“When the contest is on a physical cup, there is not actually a lot you can do. When they moved it to a digital app, that opened up a lot of interesting avenues of thinking about how the contest was designed and how you as a player might be able to take advantage of that,” said Wallace.
Wallace said he read the rules, did a little research on online contests and came up with a theory.
“Basically I took a gamble. I gambled that they hadn’t thought of a few things that I thought of and I bought a bunch of coffees and saved a bunch of rolls and played them at the very end of the contest and managed to win at about 98 per cent of the time.”
After a winning streak in 2020, Wallace said Tim Hortons made some changes and the winning rate fell back to earth in 2021.
In 2022, Wallace made some changes and achieved a 40 per cent win rate.
This year Wallace says Tim Hortons sent him an unintentional life line in the form of real time data.
“This year, one big difference I noticed was on their website, they starting posting the number of prizes people were winning as the contest went along, so these numbers are telling you roughly how many people are playing and by recording the data I was able to plot and figure out when the best time to play and when was the worst time to play, based on when other people were playing in the contest,” he said.
His theory is simple, play when others are not to improve your chance of winning.
While some may be able to reasonably guess a good time to play, Wallace was able to determine the best minute to play in his time zone, using data.
“What I found was the best time to play was 3:16 a.m. and the worst time to play was 11:46 a.m.,” Wallace said.
When he was playing at 3:16 a.m. he won roughly 80 per cent of his rolls. When he played at 11:46 a.m., he won around 15 per cent.
For Wallace his fascination, bordering on obsession, with Roll Up To Win is not just a pursuit of free caffeine and sugar – Wallace also uses his research as a teaching tool.
“I knew even if my strategy didn’t pay off, I would at very least get a good story out of it, show my students, try to get them interested in statistics” Said Wallace.
Wallace said experiments like this are incredibly rewarding.
“You can actually use real world data and see how people are behaving through those numbers, so it’s that interpretation of seeing the real world, through numbers, that I find really exciting,” he said.
As for Tim Hortons, in years previous they have not seemed to mind Wallace’s experiments with their beloved game.
An attitude he said he hopes they keep.
“I am always a little worried that I’m going to get a letter banning me from my local Tim’s,” he said.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Senate expenses climbed to $7.2 million in 2023, up nearly 30%
Senators in Canada claimed $7.2 million in expenses in 2023, a nearly 30 per cent increase over the previous year.
Pedestrian, baby injured after stroller struck and dragged by vehicle in Squamish, B.C.
Police say a baby and a pedestrian suffered non-life-threatening injuries after a vehicle struck a baby stroller and dragged it for two blocks before stopping in Squamish, B.C.
Tom Mulcair: Park littered with trash after 'pilot project' is perfect symbol of Trudeau governance
Former NDP leader Tom Mulcair says that what's happening now in a trash-littered federal park in Quebec is a perfect metaphor for how the Trudeau government runs things.
'It's discriminatory': Individuals refused entry to Ontario legislature for wearing keffiyeh
Individuals being barred from entering Ontario’s legislature while wearing a keffiyeh say the garment is part of their cultural identity— and the only ones making it political are the politicians banning it.
RCMP uncovers alleged plot by 2 Montreal men to illegally sell drones, equipment to Libya
The RCMP says it has uncovered a plot by two men in Montreal to sell Chinese drones and military equipment to Libya illegally.
Government agrees to US$138.7M settlement over FBI's botching of Larry Nassar assault allegations
The U.S. Justice Department announced a US$138.7 million settlement Tuesday with more than 100 people who accused the FBI of grossly mishandling allegations of sexual assault against Larry Nassar in 2015 and 2016, a critical time gap that allowed the sports doctor to continue to prey on victims before his arrest.
Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko won't play in Game 2
The Vancouver Canucks will be without all-star goalie Thatcher Demko when they face the Nashville Predators in Game 2 of their first-round playoff series.
Man wanted in connection with deadly shooting in Toronto tops list of most wanted fugitives in Canada
A 35-year-old man wanted in connection with the murder of Toronto resident 29-year-old Sharmar Powell-Flowers nine months ago has topped the list of the BOLO program’s 25 most wanted fugitives across Canada, police announced Tuesday.
Doctors ask Liberal government to reconsider capital gains tax change
The Canadian Medical Association is asking the federal government to reconsider its proposed changes to capital gains taxation, arguing it will affect doctors' retirement savings.